209-228 with some still on the table.

Must carry the Rust Belt and Pennsylvania.

and it gets tighter and tighter.

Montana called for Team Red.

Utah, Nevada, and Iowa – no calls.

I’d post a map on 270 – but that’s not happening with the site getting hammered.

Chaos. Total chaos.

Ok – if you visited the site prior to the election, you saw the page where I estimated when they’d call the state versus when the state closed.

Here’s the data points: The call time comes from NPR. Any poll times that I got incorrect as part of the original posting were adjusted to the correct call time. I call it a successful call if it’s within 15 minutes (partial credit if within 30).

What went well:
The easy states (those that were blowouts – candidate differences >10%)
New Hampshire (got lucky)

What didn’t:
Well, most everything else. You can’t estimates based on polls unless you want to use it as a baseline for which states will be called later. I went with the generic assumption that states will be called based on poll accuracy. Major flaw in theory is that you have to factor in how accurate the polling is. More on that in the next post.

Net results:
Going to leave this to the experts, but it’s fun to try and guess every four years.

as of 7:30PT
(updated as of 7:45 with links)
and 8:55 with results
and 9:45 with more results

Let’s compare some right leaning pundits and the data crunching types to see how everyone did in the battleground states:

12:56 ET – 9:56 PT –
Governor Romney concedes.

Is it over as of 9:56PT? Yes.

11:16 ET – 8:16 PT –
Fox and CNN calls Ohio for the President – ballgame.

Is it over as of 8:16PT? Yes.

11:12 ET – 8:12 PT –
They called Washington, Iowa, California, Wisconsin and Hawaii for the President and Montana, North Carolina and Idaho for Governor Romney. No surprises there, except how late NC was called.

Currently not called by CNN:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Florida, Ohio, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Totals include New Mexico

Running Total:
Obama 249 – Romney 191 – Not called 98.

Is it over as of 8:10PT? I think so.

11:10 ET – 8:10 PT –
They called Washington, Iowa, California, Wisconsin and Hawaii for the President and Montana, North Carolina and Idaho for Governor Romney. No surprises there, except how late NC was called.

Currently not called by CNN:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Florida, Ohio, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Totals include New Mexico

Running Total:
Obama 237 – Romney 216 – Not called 85.

Is it over as of 8:10PT? I think so.

10:58 ET – 7:58 PT –
I think it’s getting called by 8:30, if not 8:05. And for the President’s re-election.

Currently not called by CNN:
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Totals include Wisconsin and New Mexico

Running Total:
Obama 172 – Romney 174 – Not called 233.

Is it over as of 7:58PT? I think so.

10:50 ET – 7:50 PT –
Arizona and Minnesota gets called as expected.

Currently not called by CNN:
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Totals include Wisconsin and New Mexico

Running Total:
Obama 172 – Romney 174 – Not called 233.

Is it over as of 7:50PT? Not yet, but it’s getting closer.

10:48 ET – 7:48 PT –
The old adage for elections in Ohio is: as Hamilton County goes, Ohio goes. As Ohio goes, so goes the country. Right now, CNN is saying 53-47 for the president…

Currently not called by CNN:
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Totals include Wisconsin and New Mexico

Running Total:
Obama 162 – Romney 163 – Not called 233.

Is it over as of 7:45PT? Not yet, but it’s getting closer.

10:45 ET – 7:45 PT –
Florida is looking pretty blue – almost callable.

Currently not called by CNN:
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Totals include Wisconsin and New Mexico

Running Total:
Obama 162 – Romney 163 – Not called 233.

Is it over as of 7:45PT? Not yet, but it’s getting closer.

10:27 ET – 7:27 PT –
Is it over? No. Will it be at 8? Maybe. I wonder if they’re holding calling Florida until 8:00. If they call it for Obama, it’s over.

Currently not called by CNN:
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Totals include Wisconsin and New Mexico

Running Total:
Obama 162 – Romney 163 – Not called 233.

Is it over as of 7:27PT? Not yet, but it’s getting closer.

10:16 ET – 7:16 PT –
NBC calls New Mexico, and the paths stay the same for the President, he has 118 paths to victory – Romney has 9.

And CNN calls the Senate for the Dems to go with the House for the GOP.

Currently not called by CNN:
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Totals include Wisconsin and New Mexico

Running Total:
Obama 162 – Romney 163 – Not called 233.

Is it over as of 7:18PT? Not yet, but it’s getting closer.

10:04 ET – 7:04 PT –
CNN calls New Hampshire, the path is narrowing for Team Red. If Wisconsin is for the President, he has 118 paths to victory – Romney has 9.

Currently not called:
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Running Total:
Obama 147 – Romney 158 – Not called 233.

Is it over as of 7:04PT? Not yet, but it’s getting closer.

10:00 ET – 7:00 PT –
And we’ll have Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah. Fox and NBC have called Wisconsin for Team Blue. That’s big if you’re for Obama – I’m using CNN and staying with that – and they haven’t called it. The NY Times calls NH for Obama – same thing. No Montana is interesting. With Wisconsin and New Hampshire, the lights are dimming for Team Red.

Currently not called:
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Running Total:
Obama 143 – Romney 158 – Not called 237.

Is it over as of 7:02PT? Not yet, but it’s getting closer.

9:48 ET – 6:48 PT –
Now time for a Senatorial update – with Elizabeth Brown and Joe Donnelly flip two seats for Team Blue – that’s extra padding.

Currently not called:
Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Running Total:
Obama 143 – Romney 152 – Not called 293

Is it over as of 6:45PT? No.

9:42 ET – 6:42 PT –
Pennsylvania goes Team Blue – and that’s good for the President.

Currently not called:
Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Running Total:
Obama 143 – Romney 152 – Not called 293

Is it over as of 6:45PT? No.

9:00 ET – 6:00 PT –
Alabama (5:40) was called for Romney. Closing at 6:00 Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming  – all closed.

Currently not called:
Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, One Congressional District in Maine and Two in Nebraska.

Running Total:
Obama 123 – Romney 152 – Not called 313

Is it over as of 6:15PT? No.

8:30 ET – 5:30 PT –
Arkansas and Tennessee called for Romney. No surprises.

Running Total:
Obama 64 – Romney 56 – Not called 129

Is it over as of 5:40PT? No.

8:00 ET – 5:00 PT –
Massachusetts, District of Columbia, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, Rhode Island and Maine called for Obama. Oklahoma, Georgia (4:00) called for Romney.

Running Total:
Obama 64 – Romney 56 – Not called 136

Is it over as of 5:20PT? No.

7:30 ET – 4:30 PT –
West Virginia went to Romney (no surprise). As was South Carolina from 4:00 was called for Romney.

Running Total:
Obama 3 – Romney 49 – Not called 0

Is it over as of 4:30PT? No.

7:00 ET – 4:00 PT –
Kentucky and Vermont called right at 7ET/4PT, Indiana about 4:20PT. No surprises that Virginia hasn’t been called. A little surprised about no calls in South Carolina or Georgia (not crazy surprised).

Running Total:
Obama 3 – Romney 19 – Not called 38

Is it over as of 4:20PT? No.

As discussed in yesterday’s post, the networks call the state once they have enough information to make an informed decision. Let’s walk through the states by closing times.

6:00 ET / 3:00 PT (None)
My original post was incorrect on quite a few states poll closing times. The networks are going to call Kentucky and Indiana at 7:00. Stupid internets.

7:00 ET / 4:00 PT (6 states): Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
Virginia is so close, I would expect it to not be called until 6:00PT – and if it is called sooner, that will be very interesting.

7:30 ET / 4:30 PT (3 states): North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
North Carolina isn’t supposed to be that close (depending on who you believe) and everyone is focused on Ohio. I would expect that North Carolina gets called within an hour after polls close (no later than 8:30 ET / 5:30 PT). If Ohio gets called early and for the President, that’s bad news for the Romney/Ryan ticket. If North Carolina gets called at all for the President, that’s really bad news if you’re supporting R/R.

8:00 ET / 5:00 PT (17 states): Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee
Lots of states will be called at the top of the hour – but due to that Superstorm Sandy, I would not expect them to call New Jersey at the top of the hour. If Pennsylvania isn’t called by 9:00 ET (6:00 PT) for the President, that is bad news if you’re for Team Blue. New Hampshire should be called about 9:00 ET (6:00 PT), and if you want an Electoral College tie, New Hampshire is your friend.

8:30 ET / 5:30 PT (1 state): Arkansas
9:00 ET / 6:00 PT (14 states): Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
I would think Wisconsin will get called about 9:30 ET (6:30 PT) – but due to it being Congressman Ryan’s home, they may give extra special care to getting it right. Colorado is another close call, probably about 10:30 ET (7:30 PT). Depending on how some of the other calls before it go, it may not matter at all. If Team Red is having a good night watch for Michigan and Minnesota not getting called by 10:00 ET (7:00 PT).

10:00 ET / 7:00 PT (4 states): Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah
Iowa and Nevada are where you’ll be spending your energy. Nevada should be called by 8 PT but Iowa could be called after the polls close on the West Coast (but I still guess about 8:00 PT).

11:00 ET / 8:00 PT (5 states): California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington
1:00 ET / 9:00 PT (1 state): Alaska
It’s the home stretch. If you’re for the President, you want 200 electoral votes by 11ET, because Washington, California and Hawaii will put him over the 270 threshold (to my friends in Oregon, you will as well but it’s padding).

Here’s the rundown by estimated call time (based on 538’s projections)

Here’s the deal with the calling races on the night of the election: all of the networks have a >95% idea as to who’s going to win in each state (Nate Silver isn’t the only one who uses algorithms…). The networks use the National Election Pool (NEP) for exit polls and for projections. It’s been a while since I worked in this (my internship for CBS during college was awesome), but I’ll bet it hasn’t changed much:

• Each county (or similar jurisdiction – parish if Louisiana, borough in Alaska) has voting precincts. Some precincts have had the same boundaries for a number of years, even decades; others will be brand new this year because of the redistricting that happens after every census.
• The NEP picks precincts from the 31 states where exit polls are being held that are very “purple” in nature. These precincts have split their results between the two major parties for a quite a few elections.
• The NEP works with local election officials to get the results from these precincts to the NEP as quickly as possible on election night, usually straight from the polling place.
• In states that have polling places (all but OR and WA), they’ll have exit polls already tabulated (about three hours before the first results are announced) to verify the hard data they’ll get at the poll closing but also for questions like why people voted the way they did (giving the talking head class something to bloviate about).
• They do all of the number crunching and wait for results from the polling places which either verifies the exit polls (resulting in calling the election right away) or doesn’t (resulting in not calling the race for a while).

The majority of states will be called immediately after their polls close, but we’ll discuss tomorrow when they’re called by looking at the battleground states.

10.25.16 – updated in 2016 with the new URL for fivethirtyeight, removed the link for UnskewedPolls.com and kept the rest.