Click on the time for a map of the electoral college as of the poll closing time. We’re showcasing the different viewpoints of The NY Times blog 538 and UnskewedPolls.com. For other options, hit the references at the bottom of the page.
538’s numbers were as of 10/22 – UnskewedPolls as of 10/16. This may or may not be updated as we get closer to Election Day.
6:00 ET/3:00 PT
According to 270toWin.com, the Dems have 325 winning combinations and the GOP has 364. It’s still early, so hang on.
At 6:00 ET, there are no surprises, but if Indiana isn’t announced for Romney early, it’s a tip that it could be a long night for the Red team
No surprises here – Unskewed calls both of these for Team Red.
Here’s our first fun part of the night. At 7:00 ET, our first two swing states go into play, Virginia and Florida. As of October 22, both go to the Romney campaign per Unskewed and they are split per 538 (VA to Obama). But with the split in Virginia being almost 50-50, we could be in for a very long night in Virginia.
At 7:00ET, it’s unlikely that Virginia or Florida will be called right as the polls close, but if either go to the Democrats, it’s tough sledding for the Romney campaign.
No surprises here – Unskewed calls Virginia and Florida for Team Red.
Divergence happens here and in a big way. According to Unskewed, the GOP takes all three: North Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio. 538 says Ohio stays in the Dem column. If Ohio goes to the GOP, it gets very difficult for the Democrats. If Ohio goes to the President, the odds are in his favor. And if North Carolina goes to the Blue Team, it is very difficult to see a Romney win.
If 538 is right about Ohio and North Carolina, the race is tight, if they’re wrong, it’s all about which way it’s wrong.
Part of Unskewed “Call all Tossup states for Romney” plan, North Carolina and Ohio go red, making it way difficult for the Dems.
The motherlode of states, 18 worth 180 electoral votes – and three critical states (Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania). Critical is New Hampshire, and if the Incumbent loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s the ballgame. And one will want to watch the Senate races in Connecticut, Missouri, and Maine.
If you’re for the Blue team, you’re happy with getting NH while keeping PA and MI.
If you’re for the Red team, you’re very happy – because it’s pretty much over. You have stunned the pundit class by taking MI and PA in addition to NH.
8:30 – 9:00 is when we’ll probably hear results for New Hampshire, Florida and maybe even Ohio. Oh, and the only state where the polls close is Arkansas.
The election is over if either version of projections hold completely true, and the polls have not closed on the West Coast.
It is over no matter which way you go (unless they have not called the states of FL, OH, PA, MI, VA – and then you’re up for the long haul.
The idea for the site came from a variety of places: Electoral Vote.com, 538.com, 270toWin.com, Huffington Post’s Dashboard, Real Clear Politics, Talking Points Memo Electoral Scoreboard, The Green Papers (poll closing times) among others
The truth of the matter is that the election will be decided before the polls close on the West Coast at 8PM PT, be it for the incumbent or the challenger. The question is when will it be over.