Click on the time for a map of the electoral college as of the poll closing time. We’re showcasing the different viewpoints of The NY Times blog 538 and UnskewedPolls.com. For other options, hit the references at the bottom of the page.
538’s numbers were as of 10/22 – UnskewedPolls as of 10/16. This may or may not be updated as we get closer to Election Day.
Here’s our first fun part of the night. At 7:00 ET, our first two swing states go into play, Virginia and Florida. As of October 22, both go to the Romney campaign per Unskewed and they are split per 538 (VA to Obama). But with the split in Virginia being almost 50-50, we could be in for a very long night in Virginia.
At 7:00ET, it’s unlikely that Virginia or Florida will be called right as the polls close, but if either go to the Democrats, it’s tough sledding for the Romney campaign.
Divergence happens here and in a big way. According to Unskewed, the GOP takes all three: North Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio. 538 says Ohio stays in the Dem column. If Ohio goes to the GOP, it gets very difficult for the Democrats. If Ohio goes to the President, the odds are in his favor. And if North Carolina goes to the Blue Team, it is very difficult to see a Romney win.
The motherlode of states, 18 worth 180 electoral votes – and three critical states (Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania). Critical is New Hampshire, and if the Incumbent loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s the ballgame. And one will want to watch the Senate races in Connecticut, Missouri, and Maine.
If you’re for the Red team, you’re very happy – because it’s pretty much over. You have stunned the pundit class by taking MI and PA in addition to NH.
8:30 – 9:00 is when we’ll probably hear results for New Hampshire, Florida and maybe even Ohio. Oh, and the only state where the polls close is Arkansas.
The truth of the matter is that the election will be decided before the polls close on the West Coast at 8PM PT, be it for the incumbent or the challenger. The question is when will it be over.
