As discussed in yesterday’s post, the networks call the state once they have enough information to make an informed decision. Let’s walk through the states by closing times.
6:00 ET / 3:00 PT (None)
My original post was incorrect on quite a few states poll closing times. The networks are going to call Kentucky and Indiana at 7:00.
7:00 ET / 4:00 PT (6 states): Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
Virginia is so close, I would expect it to not be called until 6:00PT – and if it is called sooner, that will be very interesting.
7:30 ET / 4:30 PT (3 states): North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
North Carolina isn’t supposed to be that close (depending on who you believe) and everyone is focused on Ohio. I would expect that North Carolina gets called within an hour after polls close (no later than 8:30 ET / 5:30 PT). If Ohio gets called early and for the President, that’s bad news for the Romney/Ryan ticket. If North Carolina gets called at all for the President, that’s really bad news if you’re supporting R/R.
8:00 ET / 5:00 PT (17 states): Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee
Lots of states will be called at the top of the hour – but due to that Superstorm Sandy, I would not expect them to call New Jersey at the top of the hour. If Pennsylvania isn’t called by 9:00 ET (6:00 PT) for the President, that is bad news if you’re for Team Blue. New Hampshire should be called about 9:00 ET (6:00 PT), and if you want an Electoral College tie, New Hampshire is your friend.
8:30 ET / 5:30 PT (1 state): Arkansas
9:00 ET / 6:00 PT (14 states): Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
I would think Wisconsin will get called about 9:30 ET (6:30 PT) – but due to it being Congressman Ryan’s home, they may give extra special care to getting it right. Colorado is another close call, probably about 10:30 ET (7:30 PT). Depending on how some of the other calls before it go, it may not matter at all. If Team Red is having a good night watch for Michigan and Minnesota not getting called by 10:00 ET (7:00 PT).
10:00 ET / 7:00 PT (4 states): Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah
Iowa and Nevada are where you’ll be spending your energy. Nevada should be called by 8 PT but Iowa could be called after the polls close on the West Coast (but I still guess about 8:00 PT).
11:00 ET / 8:00 PT (5 states): California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington
1:00 ET / 9:00 PT (1 state): Alaska
It’s the home stretch. If you’re for the President, you want 200 electoral votes by 11ET, because Washington, California and Hawaii will put him over the 270 threshold (to my friends in Oregon, you will as well but it’s padding).
Here’s the rundown by estimated call time (based on 538’s projections)
|District of Columbia||3||8:00||8:00||36||58|
|South Dakota (CST)||3||8:00||8:00||95||84|