The title is “What Time Will the Presidency Be Decided”
Category Archives: 2016
2016: The 4:00PST calls
Kentucky, Indiana, Vermont are called.
No calls for Georgia, Virginia, and South Carolina. If not called, they go to “Other”.
Oh. Boy.
Click the map to create your own at Is the election over? No.
Exit Polls for 2016
Morning of the 2016 Election
If we use the URL of this website as a question, the answer should be today.
Here’s how I see it – start with everything that 538.com has as 90+% in the bag for either candidate (as of 12:15A PST – start with this for your own playing at home):
And then let’s go with our normal when the polls close and we’re only going to talk about the states that are not 90+%:
7:00PM Eastern / 4:00PM Pacific
Of the six states will close: Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont are going to be called, leaving Georgia and Virginia. Virginia could take a while, but Georgia could go at close. Let’s go with Georgia for Team Red and Virginia for Team Blue. Any discrepancy means a problem for that side – which leaves you with this:
Is the election over? No.
7:30 Eastern / 4:30 Pacific
If you believe the prognosticators, you have: West Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio. Only West Virginia gets called at 7:30 and is already called in our 90+% call. North Carolina and Ohio could be called earlier than 6:00 PST, but I don’t think they will. But for fun, let’s look at it as if they are:
Is the election over? No.
8:00 Eastern / 5:00 Pacific
The large batch of states are called at 5PM PST. In the 90+: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. In the not called, you have: Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Two to look for here: Florida and New Hampshire. As discussed last time, there are down ballot implications for the Senate.
Here’s what all of that looks like:
Is the election over? Almost.
8:30 EASTERN / 5:30 PACIFIC
Arkansas is the only call. Again, no surprises here. Since they’re not a sub-90%, no new map.
Is the election over? Almost.
9:00 EASTERN / 6:00 PACIFIC
Home stretch: In the pre-called: Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. In the running: Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. If you believe Team Red, everything in the running is going their way. If that’s true, it’s been an interesting night, none of the maps above are right and we won’t be over by a long shot. If they’re wrong, that’s the ballgame. Here’s what that looks like:
Is the election over? Yes. But they can’t and won’t tell you that.
10:00 EASTERN / 7:00 PACIFIC
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah. Not calling Iowa or Nevada until after 7:30 Pacific. And here’s what that looks like:
10:30 EASTERN / 7:30 PACIFIC
A lot of the close states they will not have called Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, North Carolina, maybe Maine. As discussed last time, if you call any of those states for Clinton before 8PM Pacific, the election is over if everything else we’ve talked about before this holds true. Again, the bet you might want to have with your friends is what state is called to put it past that threshold of 192 electoral college votes before 8:00 Pacific.
11:00 EASTERN / 8:00 PACIFIC
Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Hawaii. Ballgame. To me, the key is Ohio, followed by Pennsylvania. If either race is called before 6PM Pacific, it doesn’t matter what happens in Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, or Nevada. Without calling those six states, it’s 253-191 for Clinton and Drumpf has to win Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio and he is given less than 40% of a chance in each of all three. Tough sledding for any candidate. Alaska gets called at 9:00 Pacific and we can call it a wrap:
My questions are North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona…
- In North Carolina, where does the military vote go?
- In Florida, what about the Hispanic vote and where do Cubans call home?
- New Hampshire, is there something for Drumpf? If so, does this portend a very different night?
- Nevada, did the onslaught of last minute votes sway and does it tip the Senate race?
- Arizona – see Nevada.
I don’t know, but I will be watching, having popcorn and will live blog it (just like four years ago).
The state of the election in 2016
So it’s been four years, and it’s time to fire up the old “when is the election over” site.
If you were to visit the site in late January and I had a posting, we could have talked about a Rubio – Clinton general election. And then the Trump steamroller happened, with a side of Bernie-mania. Things were interesting, and then the summer happened, and well…there you go. Now we are in the final two weeks, and it’s almost over.
Before we break down how election night could go, let’s revisit how election night happens. As noted four years ago, there is a lot of work that goes on. When it comes to what I say will happen, your mileage may vary – and if they haven’t called any of these states within a few minutes after the polls close, you might as well buckle up, it could be a fun night. Since this site prefers to talk about election night as we go, here’s what we’ve got (methodology – and maps will come next week as we get closer):
7:00PM Eastern / 4:00PM Pacific
At seven o’clock, six states will close: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. I think most will be called – Georgia being the possible exception, I think it will be called within the first 30 minutes after polls close. If it takes any longer than 30 minutes, whoo boy.
7:30 Eastern / 4:30 Pacific
So they called West Virginia, and we will add Georgia. If Georgia goes for Clinton and it’s within the first half hour, it’s going to be a LONG night for the red team. You also have North Carolina and Ohio. Just for fun, we’re not calling either until 7:30PM Pacific.
8:00 Eastern / 5:00 Pacific
Big batch of states called: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington DC, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Maine (maybe not all of Maine, but for this conversation it will be all of Maine). Three to look for here: Florida, Missouri, and New Hampshire. If Missouri isn’t called for Trump that won’t be good for the Republican Senate candidate. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are similar in that if it goes quickly for Clinton, bad news for the Republican Senate candidates because it could be Trump supporters stayed home. Florida is projected to go Clinton, but does it take a while? With Maine, the question will be does Trump get an electoral vote due to the state splitting on congressional districts? If all but Florida are called before 8:30PM Eastern, and called in the way they’re predicted to go, it’s almost over. If they call Florida for Clinton, it’s over – so we’ll keep it as not called for now and call it at 7:30PM Pacific.
8:30 EASTERN / 5:30 PACIFIC
Arkansas is the only call. Again, no surprises here.
9:00 EASTERN / 6:00 PACIFIC
Home stretch: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Still not over.
10:00 EASTERN / 7:00 PACIFIC
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah. Not calling Iowa or Nevada until after 7:30 Pacific.
10:30 EASTERN / 7:30 PACIFIC
So we haven’t called North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, or Nevada and we haven’t called the west coast (Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, and Hawaii) and here’s why that is important: the Election in 1980, when the election was called and conceded before the polls closed on the west coast.
If you call any of those states for Clinton before 8PM Pacific, the election is over if everything else we’ve talked about before this holds true. Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii are all slated to go to Clinton and that is 78 electoral votes. If Clinton has 192 or more electoral college votes before 8:00 Pacific, that’s the ballgame and we’ve been watching the bloviate class discuss the more interesting Senate races and whether or not the House will flip. The bet you might want to have with your friends is what state is called to put it past that threshold of 192 electoral college votes before 8:00 Pacific.
11:00 EASTERN / 8:00 PACIFIC
Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Hawaii. Ballgame. To me, the key is Ohio, followed by Pennsylvania. If either race is called before 6PM Pacific, it doesn’t matter what happens in Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, or Nevada. Without calling those six states, it’s 253-191 for Clinton and Trump has to win Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio and he is given less than 40% of a chance in each of all three. Tough sledding for any candidate.
Methodology for 2016
Here is where I get hypothetical results:
- FiveThirtyEight – I’ve loved this site for eight years. It gives my electoral nerd goosebumps. I prefer to use their Polls-Plus model, as it is a little more conservative in nature. And until that team gets it wrong, it’s who I’ll use.
- 270ToWin – I use their interactive site to build the maps you see on this site, but I also like their forecast page, because it has a lot of sites I follow during this time of the election season.
What I do:
- Take numbers from a variety of sites, estimate when they will actually call the state and walk everyone through what I think the night will look like. I also try to take into consideration other races that may influence turnout. Am I right? No, but it’s fun.