Methodology for 2016

Here is where I get hypothetical results:

  • FiveThirtyEight – I’ve loved this site for eight years. It gives my electoral nerd goosebumps. I prefer to use their Polls-Plus model, as it is a little more conservative in nature. And until that team gets it wrong, it’s who I’ll use.
  • 270ToWin – I use their interactive site to build the maps you see on this┬ásite, but I also like their forecast page, because it has a lot of sites I follow during this time of the election season.

What I do:

  • Take numbers from a variety of sites, estimate when they will actually call the state and walk everyone through what I think the night will look like. I also try to take into consideration other races that may influence turnout. Am I right? No, but it’s fun.